Florida Real Estate Market Report

Mortgage rates are back at 7.42%, and Florida just did something the rest of the country didn't. If you're buying or selling a home anywhere in Florida this week, stick around. Hey, I'm James Schlimmer, broker at HomeJam.ai. This is the Florida Housing Market Update for the week of October 12, 2026. In the next five minutes you'll know exactly what's happening in Southwest Florida, Sarasota, Tampa Bay and Orlando, and what it means for your next move. Let's start with mortgage rates today. The Optimal Blue daily index had the 30-year fixed at 7.42% on Thursday, up from 7.37% a week earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly average came in at 7.40%. One year ago, that number was 6.30%. The 10-year Treasury, the number mortgage rates follow, closed Thursday at 5.22%. So rates are holding, but they're holding high. Here's what 7.42% means for a Florida homebuyer. On a $380,000 home with 20% down, the payment is about $2,110 a month. A year ago, that same home was about $1,882. That's $228 a month more for the same house. And that's exactly why mortgage purchase applications are down 15% from a year ago. Buyers are still here, but their budgets are smaller. Now here's the part I promised you. Florida just split from the rest of the country. Nationally, housing inventory is up 5% from a year ago. In Florida, inventory is down 13%. The country is piling up listings. Florida is working through them. Florida sellers pulled back from the market earlier than everyone else, and that's why the Florida housing market is tightening while the national market is loosening. On price, the median asking price in Florida is $470,000, down 3% from a year ago. Nationally it's $435,000, down 1%. And price cuts are right in line: 44% of Florida homes for sale have reduced their price, versus 43% nationally. So Florida is correcting on price like everyone else, but the supply story is moving in the opposite direction. That matters if you're selling. Let's go around the state, starting with the Southwest Florida housing market: Fort Myers, Cape Coral and Naples. The typical sale price in Southwest Florida is about $380,000, down half a percent from a year ago, with 6.5 months of supply. That's how long it would take to sell every home on the market at today's pace, and 6.5 months reads as a buyer's market. Altos Research shows 318 new listings in Southwest Florida last week, down 17% from the same week a year ago, and 220 new pending sales, down 19%. Both sides are quieter than last October. But supply is pulling back faster than demand, and that's good news if your Southwest Florida home is already on the market. Sarasota is new to the report this week, and it's already the standout. In the Sarasota, Bradenton and North Port market, Altos shows 279 new pending sales last week, up 4% from a year ago. Sarasota is the only one of our four Florida metros where buyer activity is running ahead of last year. If you're thinking about selling in Sarasota, your buyers showed up this week. Next, the Tampa Bay housing market: Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. The typical sale price in Tampa Bay is about $368,000, up 1.4% from a year ago, with 4.3 months of supply. That reads as a balanced market. Altos shows the median asking price on new Tampa Bay listings at $435,000, down 1% from a year ago. New pending sales came in at 611, down 19%. But here's the number that matters for Tampa sellers: median days on market is 77, down from 84 a year ago. Homes that are priced right in Tampa Bay are selling faster than they did last fall. The ones that aren't are joining the 53% of Tampa Bay homes that have already taken a price cut. And finally, the Orlando housing market: Orlando, Kissimmee and Sanford. The typical sale price in Orlando is about $395,000, down 1.5% from a year ago, with 4.7 months of supply, also a balanced market. Altos shows 606 new listings in Orlando last week, flat with a year ago, and 473 new pending sales, down 13%. Supply is holding, demand is softer. Orlando buyers have more to choose from and less competition for it, and 54% of Orlando homes for sale are below their original asking price. So what does this mean if you're selling a home in Florida? Start with your price and your competition. In Southwest Florida, 48% of homes for sale are below their original price. In Tampa Bay it's 53%. In Orlando it's 54%. That tells you the market is correcting sellers who started too high. Look at the homes you're competing with before you list, and make your first price one you can defend with what's on the market right now. Price it right the first week and you sell. Price it high and chase the market down, and you sit while the price cuts pile up around you. If you're selling in the next year, HomeJam.ai gives you the live estimate, the net sheet, the contract and the closing, all in one place. You choose how much help you want, and it costs a fraction of the traditional way. And if you're buying a home in Florida? Keep your payment in view and watch the price cuts. At 7.42%, the monthly payment sets your budget, not the sticker price, so run the payment before you decide what price range fits. Then compare the homes that have already been reduced with the brand-new listings before you write an offer. There's less competition in Florida right now than there was a year ago. That's your leverage. Use it. Buying through HomeJam costs you nothing. Search, make offers and sign in one place, with an agent by your side if you want one. Sell. Buy. Close. One platform. Go to homejam.ai and pull your live market estimate today. I'm James Schlimmer with HomeJam.ai, and I'll see you next Monday for the next Florida Housing Market Update.