Florida Real Estate Market Report

THIS WEEK] This week, homes going under contract in Tampa Bay are asking $25,000 less than they were in July, and this is not the normal fall slowdown. If you're buying or selling in Florida, stick around. Hey, I'm James Schlimmer, broker at HomeJam. This is the Florida Housing Market Update for the week of October 19, 2026. In the next few minutes you'll know what's happening in Southwest Florida, Sarasota, Tampa Bay and Orlando, and what it means for your next move. [RATES] Mortgage rates today finally gave a little back. The Optimal Blue daily index had the 30-year fixed at 7.29% on Thursday, October 15, down from 7.42% a week earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly average was 7.40%, versus 6.27% a year ago. The 10-year Treasury, the number mortgage rates follow, closed Thursday at 5.10%, down from 5.22%. On a $380,000 home with 20% down, that's about $2,083 a month at today's rate, versus about $1,876 a year ago. That's $207 a month more for the same house. And buyers feel it: MBA purchase applications were down 4.0% from the prior week and down 16.1% from a year ago. [YOUR METRO] Now let's go around Florida, starting with the Southwest Florida housing market: Naples, Fort Myers and Cape Coral. I want to show you a number that looks scary and isn't. In Naples, the typical asking price on homes going under contract was $925,000 in March. This week it's $799,000. That's $126,000 lower. Sounds like a crash. It's not. Naples does this every year when the season ends. In 2024, the same number fell 13% over the same months. And compared with a year ago, it's actually up 2.6%. That's why we check our work. Here's what is real in Southwest Florida. The typical sale price is about $382,000, down 0.8% from a year ago, with 6.8 months of supply, which reads as a buyer's market. But supply is shrinking fast. Altos Research shows 5,822 homes for sale in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, down 27% from a year ago. Homes are taking time to sell, about 177 days on market on average, but sellers are pulling listings faster than buyers are walking away. Next, the Sarasota housing market: Sarasota, Bradenton and North Port. Sarasota is still the standout. Altos shows 731 homes under contract, up 16% from a year ago, while inventory is down about 20%. Fewer homes, more contracts. The typical asking price on new contracts is $479,900, up 4.6% from a year ago. Now the Tampa Bay housing market: Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. The typical sale price is about $368,000, up 1.4% from a year ago, with 4.4 months of supply, a balanced market. But here's the number I opened with. The typical asking price on homes going under contract peaked at $424,900 in July. This week it's $400,000. In 2024, that same summer-to-fall move was about 1%. Last year it was zero. This year it's almost 6%. And 57% of Tampa Bay homes for sale are now below their original asking price. And the Orlando housing market: Orlando, Kissimmee and Sanford. The typical sale price is about $396,000, down 1.8% from a year ago, with 4.8 months of supply. The asking price on new contracts went from $450,000 in July to $430,000 now. Unlike Naples, that's down from a year ago too, by 3.3%. Last year, Orlando barely moved over the same stretch. [FLORIDA AND THE NATION] Now Florida versus the rest of the country, week of October 19. Nationally, Altos shows 51,947 homes under contract, the 7th straight weekly decline, down 20% in 7 weeks. National inventory hit a new 2026 high of 905,166, up 5.3% from a year ago. In Florida's big metros, it's the opposite. Inventory is down 27% in Miami and in Fort Myers and Cape Coral, down about 20% in Sarasota, and down 10% in Tampa. The country is stacking up listings. Florida sellers are pulling theirs. That's why most Florida prices are still close to flat from a year ago, even with fewer buyers. [SOMETHING TO WATCH] Something to watch in the Florida housing market this week: Tampa Bay and Orlando. Naples' price drop happens every fall. Tampa's and Orlando's usually don't, at least not like this. When asking prices on new contracts fall about 5% since summer in markets that normally hold flat, that's sellers meeting buyers where they are. If it keeps going into November, buyers in those two metros will have more room to negotiate heading into winter. [WHAT THIS MEANS] So what does this mean if you're selling a home in Florida? Price for the market in front of you, not the one from spring. In Southwest Florida, 47% of homes for sale are below their original price. In Tampa Bay it's 57%, and in Orlando it's 54%. In Tampa and Orlando especially, buyers are watching prices move week to week, and a first price that's out of step gets skipped. If you're selling in the next year, HomeJam gives you the live estimate, the net sheet, the contract and the closing in one place. You choose how much help you want, and it costs a fraction of the traditional way. And if you're buying? Rates dipped this week, so run your payment now and keep that number in front of you. Then go where the leverage is. In Tampa Bay and Orlando, asking prices on new contracts are down $20,000 to $25,000 since summer, and more than half the homes for sale have already cut. In Sarasota, competition is picking up, so be ready to move. Buying through HomeJam costs you nothing. Search, make offers and sign in one place, with an agent by your side if you want one. [SIGN OFF] Sell. Buy. Close. One platform. Go to homejam.ai and pull your live market estimate today. I'm James Schlimmer with HomeJam, and I'll see you next Monday for the next Florida Housing Market Update.