Florida Real Estate Market Report

[THIS WEEK] This week, Orlando became the only big Florida metro with more homes for sale than a year ago, and Tampa isn't far behind. If you're buying or selling in Florida, stick around. Hey, I'm James Schlimmer, broker at HomeJam. This is the Florida Housing Market Update for the week of October 26, 2026. In the next few minutes you'll know what's happening in Southwest Florida, Sarasota, Tampa Bay and Orlando, and what it means for your next move. [RATES] Mortgage rates today gave back a little more. The Optimal Blue daily index had the 30-year fixed at 7.25% on Thursday, October 22, down from 7.29% a week earlier. Freddie Mac's weekly average was 7.32%, versus 6.19% a year ago. The 10-year Treasury, the number mortgage rates follow, closed Thursday at 4.96%, down from 5.10%. That's the first time it's been under 5% in a while. On a $380,000 home with 20% down, that's about $2,074 a month at today's rate, versus about $1,860 a year ago. That's $214 a month more for the same house. And buyers are still stepping back: MBA purchase applications fell 7.3% from the prior week and are down 17.9% from a year ago. [YOUR METRO] Let's go around Florida, starting with the Southwest Florida housing market: Naples, Fort Myers and Cape Coral. The typical sale price in Southwest Florida is about $380,000, down 0.5% from a year ago, with 7.0 months of supply. That's how long it would take to sell every home on the market at today's pace, and 7 months reads as a buyer's market. Altos Research shows the median asking price in Fort Myers and Cape Coral at $426,000, down 5.3% from a year ago. Naples is a different animal. Its median asking price is about $999,000, up 2% from a year ago, inventory is down 14%, and the typical price on homes going under contract is $924,000, up sharply from last year because the high-end buyers are back early. Homes still take time, about 185 days on market in Naples, but only 31% of Naples listings have cut their price, the lowest of any market we track. Next, the Sarasota housing market: Sarasota, Bradenton and North Port. Sarasota cooled this week. Homes under contract are down 12% from a year ago, and the median asking price is $530,000, down 3.5%. But supply is still the tightest in the state: inventory is down 18% from a year ago, and homes are selling 4% faster than last fall, about 134 days. Fewer buyers, but even fewer homes. Now the Tampa Bay housing market: Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. The typical sale price is about $364,000, up 1.1% from a year ago, with 4.4 months of supply, a balanced market. But here's the trend that matters. In early September, homes under contract in Tampa Bay were down 2% from a year ago. Then 7, 9, 10, 12, and now 14% for two weeks running. Eight straight weeks of widening. Inventory is at a 2026 high, 11,200 homes, though still 7% below last year. And the median asking price is $435,000, down 5.2% from a year ago and the lowest point of 2026. Homes are taking about 118 days to sell, up 18% from two years ago, and more sellers are relisting at new prices. And the Orlando housing market: Orlando, Kissimmee and Sanford. This is the one I opened with. The typical sale price is about $399,000, down 1.2% from a year ago, with 4.8 months of supply. But look at inventory. Orlando was 4% below last year in September. This week it's 1% above, at 9,270 homes, a 2026 high. That makes Orlando the only major Florida metro we track where supply has crossed above last year. Demand went the other way: homes under contract were up 3% from a year ago in early September and are down 13% now. The median asking price is $471,000, down 2.7% from a year ago, and homes are taking about 124 days to sell. [FLORIDA AND THE NATION] Now Florida versus the rest of the country, week of October 26. Nationally, Altos shows 52,490 homes under contract. That's the first weekly increase after seven straight declines, but it's still about 17% below last year on a three-week comparison. National inventory hit another 2026 high at 911,956, up 5.7% from a year ago, and the median asking price fell for the sixth straight week to $430,000. Florida: 85,512 homes for sale, down 13% from a year ago, but rising four straight weeks into late October, which is not the normal pattern. Florida homes under contract are down about 21% from a year ago on the same three-week comparison, a bigger drop than the nation's. The median asking price in Florida is $469,000, down 2.8%. So Florida buyers pulled back harder than the country, but Florida sellers pulled back harder still. That gap is what's holding prices up. [SOMETHING TO WATCH] Something to watch in the Florida housing market this week: whether Tampa follows Orlando. Orlando's inventory just crossed above last year. Tampa's is 7% below and closing. Statewide inventory has risen four weeks in a row, and relistings in both metros are up double digits from prior years, which means sellers who pulled their homes this summer are coming back. If Tampa crosses above last year's inventory by year end, with demand already down 14%, that's a buyer's market in the state's second-largest metro. [WHAT THIS MEANS] So what does this mean if you're selling a home in Florida? Your competition is growing and your buyer pool is shrinking at the same time. In Southwest Florida, 47% of homes for sale are below their original price. In Tampa Bay it's 58%, and in Orlando it's 55%. The homes that sell in this market are the ones priced for today's buyer pool, not August's. If you're selling in the next year, HomeJam gives you the live estimate, the net sheet, the contract and the closing in one place. You choose how much help you want, and it costs a fraction of the traditional way. And if you're buying? Rates dipped again, Tampa's median asking price is at its lowest point of the year, Orlando has more homes to choose from than any time in 2026, and homes in both metros are sitting about four months. That's room to negotiate. Run your payment at 7.25%, pick your price range, and make offers on homes that have been sitting. Buying through HomeJam costs you nothing. Search, make offers and sign in one place, with an agent by your side if you want one. [SIGN OFF] Sell. Buy. Close. One platform. Go to homejam.ai and pull your live market estimate today. I'm James Schlimmer with HomeJam, and I'll see you next Monday for the next Florida Housing Market Update.